September 7, 2012 Institutional Watch - Cotton Futures

　 [Hongyuan futures Continue to do more thinking on the 20 day moving average.

Main points

1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20499 yuan / ton; 229 level 19628 yuan / ton; 328 level 18752 yuan / ton; 428 grade 17914 yuan / ton. Domestic textiles: polyester staple fiber 10390 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 15780 yuan / ton; C32S price 25630 yuan / ton.

2. domestic stock: on the 6 day, domestic cotton spot prices continue to rise, and the reserves will continue. With the increasing number of eligible dealers, competitive activity will gradually increase, or transaction price may rise, especially in the absence of low price resources in the market, Xinjiang grade three cotton at the level of 19000 yuan / tonne is still attractive.

3. imported cotton: in September 6th, the price of China's main port of imported cotton continued to decline, and most varieties fell 0.5 cents. At present, the market lacks good news. China has thrown aside reserves to increase market supply, but also reduced the demand for foreign cotton in textile mills. The price trend of cotton in the future is not optimistic.

4. cotton reserve business: in September 6th, the China cotton reserve management company plans to sell 45163.79 tons of cotton reserves, and the actual turnover is 32884.43 tons, with a turnover rate of 72.81%. On the same day, the average level of transactions was 3.04, the average length was 27.88, the weighted average transaction price was 18602 yuan / ton, the 328 grade cotton price was 18649 yuan / ton (public weight), compared with September 5th, it fell 20 yuan / ton, which was lower than the national cotton price B index (CNCotton B) 18752 yuan / ton 103 yuan / ton.

5.ICE cotton: in September 6th, the European Central Bank announced that it would buy treasury bonds without limit, in order to help member countries reduce borrowing costs, and the US and European stock markets rose sharply. Under the stimulation of the external market, ICE cotton rose to close, but the upper 10 day moving average had obvious pressure.

Summary:

In the global economic downturn, global cotton The three tier structure of global cotton prices can hardly be changed if demand is difficult to solve in the long term. The cotton processors, which meet the requirements of storage and storage, assume the role of cotton porters between China's cotton social circulation price and purchase and storage prices, and the driving force for them is money and money. When the price difference is not enough to cover the cost, the transport power will no longer exist. In this sense, before the global cotton demand has obviously improved, the circulation price of cotton in China will close to 20400 of the purchase and storage price, but closing up does not mean that it can be achieved. Operation continues on the basis of 20 days and 40 day average line to do more thinking. Recently, the United States cotton has little influence on Zheng cotton.

　 [Wanda futures] macro good support for us cotton rebound

The European Central Bank announced a new debt purchase plan aimed at containing the European debt crisis. Meanwhile, US economic data show that in August, the number of private sector employment increased by five months, and the employment index of service sector also changed. The US stock market rose and the dollar weakened to boost market sentiment. On Thursday, international commodities generally strengthened. The ICE cotton was lifted from the pressure of India rainfall and China's dumping and storage. The main force rose 0.64 cents to 75.99 cents / pound in December, and stood on a 75 cent / pound basis to continue the 75-77.5 / pound system. But China's dumping will increase market supply substantially, while global consumption has no signs of recovery and lacks basic support. ICE cotton is hard to get rid of the horizontal pattern.

Thursday ICE cotton Xiao Yang closed, the main contract in December stabilized 75 cents / pound, the medium and short term average line system continued to rise in a row, but KD and MACD indicators have been bonded to form a short alignment trend, and the MACD index red column continued to shorten, the callback pressure increased, expected ICE cotton will continue to shock pattern, continue to pay attention to 75-77.5 cents / pounds of the horizontal area, such as 75 cents / pound support failure, the decline will continue, otherwise ICE period cotton will continue to rise.

On the 6 day, China planned to throw 45164 tons of storage, and the actual turnover was 32884 tons, with a turnover ratio of only 72.81%. The average price was only 18602 yuan / ton, the 328B class price was 18649 yuan / ton, the highest price reached 19290 yuan / ton, and the cumulative dumping of 166129 tons on the three day was actually 121757 tons. Dumping has increased the supply of cotton and bullish popularity. And next Monday, the new cotton purchase and storage work will officially start. The price of 20400 yuan / ton will be higher than the market price and the current price, so the new year's cotton will be stored in large quantities, and the new cotton circulation resources will be reduced. At the same time, the current capital flows from the 1301 contract to the 1305 contract, considering all factors. Zheng cotton It is expected to follow the US cotton rebound, holding a small number of 1305 contracts, and expects the 1305 contract will challenge 20000 yuan / ton first line strong pressure level.